Carl Sagan and IS Shklovskii, in their book ‘Intelligent Life in the Universe’, developed a formula for calculating the number of technological civilisations in the galaxy with whom we might be able to communicate. The calculation depended on some factors which are, relatively speaking, more straightforward to derive, such as the number of stars in our galaxy, the proportion of those with planets and the fraction of these systems with planets that might support life. The latter half of the equation, though, had to derive probabilities for matters that are much more imponderable, including the chance of life developing where conditions allow, the probability of intelligence evolving, the likelihood of intelligent life developing a technological culture capable of communicating over interstellar distances and, finally, the average life span for such a civilisation.
If my memory serves, Messers Sagan and Shklovskii in the end calculated that there are some 100,000 civilisations in the galaxy. Even though the Milky Way is a pretty big place, this number does suggest that we ought to be able to see some evidence of intelligent life out there. But, as the physicist Enrico Fermi asked, where is everybody? Not a whisper of a carrier wave, not a deflection of a gravity beam have we detected. It looks like the universe might be a much lonelier place than Messers Sagan and Shklovskii believed.
So, what was wrong with their equation? I only want to look at one of the factors in their equation now: the probability that intelligent life will eventually develop a scientific and technological culture unless prevented from doing so by environmental factors (such as being aquatic) or physiological reasons (a serpentine culture would probably have difficulty with pipe wrenches) beyond their control. The two Ss decided, and factored into their equation, that the probability of intelligent life producing a scientific culture was 1. That is, a certainty. They based this belief on the evident utility of technology for the survival of any species – we humans are unlikely to be hunted out of existence now by rampaging packs of hyenas, but it was a distinct possibility on the plains of Africa millennia ago.
However, I think their confidence was based in large part on being embedded in such a culture and thus being unaware of the philosophical and religious foundations underlying the whole scientific enterprise. A useful question to ask is why, in the Middle Ages, science was not developed in the Islamic world or China. After all, both were relatively stable civilisations, with long traditions of scholarship, and, famously, both provided some of the building blocks of modern science. For instance, the word ‘algebra’ itself is derived from Arabic, and the vital concept of the zero also comes from the Muslim world. I’m less familiar with China, but I suspect that the points I am going to raise about the House of Islam could also apply, in a modified form, to the Far East.
Now, it is well known how much a challenge the newly rediscovered works of Aristotle and other Classical authors posed to medieval Christendom. What is less well known is that the Classical inheritance were similarly problematic to the Muslim world. Over the course of a number of centuries there arose a conflict between the mutakallimun, who might be called scholastic theologians, whose chief role was to defend the truth of the Qu’ran against those who doubted it and the falasifa, the philosophers, who called Aristotle the first teacher and accepted many of the conclusions of the Greek philosophers as true.
Al-Ghazali was the greatest of the mutakallimun and Ibn Sina (Avicenna as he was known in the West) of the falasifa. In the end though the battle was won by the mutakallimun and the Asharite theology defended by Al-Ghazali became dominant within the Islamic world. This theology emphasised the limits of human reason when speaking of God to the extent, in its more extreme forms, of the denial of secondary causes. Thus when wood burns it burns because God wills it to burn, not because you have put a match to the bonfire. Once this is accepted there is an end to philosophical debate. However, such a conclusion was acceptable within the Islamic world, probably because of the emphasis placed in the Qu’ran on the will of God.
However, Christian philosophy was indelibly marked by the work of St Augustine. In his ‘Confessions’ we read of a man who struggles to bring his thought and life in to unity. For Augustine faith brought with it understanding, a fact attested in his own life, and thus there should be no radical schism between the truths of faith and the truths of reason, and he set himself the task of incorporating within Christianity those elements of Classical learning that were compatible with his faith. For Augustine Christianity contained all that was necessary for salvation but it did not contain a complete understanding of the world. To understand the world, and the glory of God it revealed, it was necessary to develop understanding in the light of faith.
And, crucially, that understanding was possible because a rational God had created a rational world. Thus it was possible to understand how things came about, their efficient causation, without simply saying that God wills it and that’s how it is. From this basic belief flows the possibility of science, for without it there is no point in trying to understand the motion of the planets and the fall of an apple.
So, who knows, maybe Messers Sagan and Shklovskii were right, maybe there are thousands upon thousands of civilisations out there staring into the night sky of their home worlds. But if they are there, they will be looking into an ebony sky untouched by the man-made light that brightens our skies. For, to paraphrase Mr Sagan, the factors producing a scientific culture could only develop in a Christ haunted world.
Recent Comments